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INFLATION TARGET TO RISE Following recent economic shocks Br 11844

INFLATION TARGET TO RISE

            Following recent economic shocks Brazil's Central Bank (BC) may revise next year's inflation target from 3,5% to 3,9%, as measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA).

            According to the minutes of the September meeting of the BC's Monetary Policy Committee (copom), besides the dollar's climb since early this year, the energy crisis, possible hikes in international oil prices and global tensions have all contributed to the upward revision of the inflation forecast.

            While Brazilian exports will undoubtedly be hit by the global retraction in trade, the BC is confident that the trade balance will actually benefit, as imports should fall even further. The forecast is for a $ 2 billion surplus by the end of the year.

            Government - administered prices, however, will probably be the major villains in this year's inflation. In 2001, the increases have already been adjusted up 11% and, by themselves, will contribute 3,2 percentage points to the 2001 IPCA figure.

            In the case of energv rates, the BC is forecasting increases of 20% for both this year and 2002. Also of concem for Brasil, oil prices are expected to increase by the second quarter of next year when they shoul stabilize.

(Gazeta Mercantil, November, 2001)

Na frase do 3º parágrafo, (...) as imports should fall even further (...), o verbo anômalo should indica:

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